Interest Rates Up & Buyer Interest Down?

One year ago in my Jan-June 2021 Report, I said “We can feel a shift happening as the third wave of Covid-19 lessens its grip and the promise of Ontario entering Step 3 Economic Reopening is just days away. It will be interesting to see what effect this will have in the coming months on the Real Estate Market, especially since we are still seeing historic low-Interest Rates for Mortgages.” Looking back over this period we can see that the interest rates and the Real Estate inventory remained low while Buyer Interest and Average Prices continued to rise. That is, until early this year. This area started the year in a strong Sellers Market, with an 87% Sales to Listings Ratio. The Average Sales Price in the Greater Hamilton Area (including Burlington-Haldimand-Niagara North) peaked at $1,104,163 ($1,013,000 in Hamilton) in February. Both numbers have continued to fall since then, due in part to interest rates rising, and part to Buyer fatigue. Right now the overall Greater Hamilton area is sitting in a Balanced Market, on the verge of a Buyers Market, with a 42% Sales to Listings Ratio. The Average Sales Price in the Greater Hamilton Area is sitting at $865,339 ($863,000 in Hamilton). We have gone from most homes and condos selling very quickly with Multiple Offers, to more and more properties sitting longer on the market, not getting any offers and having to do price improvements to attract the Buyers.

When comparing the first 6 months of this year to the first six months of 2021 we see that although the number of Listings remained fairly equal (Freehold listings in 2021 were 9713 compared to 9886 in the first half of this year and Condo Listings decreased a bit from 2419 in 2021 to 2387 so far this year) the Sales dropped significantly. In the first 6 months of 2021, there were 7317 total Freehold sales compared to only 5374 in the first six months of 2022. For the same period, Condo sales went down from 1898 to 1458. As for prices, we are still seeing much higher than last year at this time even though they are dropping month to month. Year over year for the first six months the Average Freehold Price increased from $885,236 in 2021 to $1,074,315 in 2021. Days on the market only dropped from an average of 12 to 11. The Average Condominium Price increased from $581,700 to $718,266. Average Days on the market dropped from 16 to 12. Opposite to this time last year, we are sitting in a Balanced Market, very close to a Buyers Market. This time last year we were at 87.4% Sellers Market and right now we are at a 42% Balanced Market. We use a formula of Total Sales divided by Total Listings to determine whether we are experiencing a Buyers Market, a Balanced Market, or a Sellers Market. (See definitions in the chart below).

**See below for Average Price charts and maps for districts and neighbourhoods throughout Hamilton !**

June 2022 Statistics

As discussed, inventory is a huge factor when looking at the house price statistics. June 2022 had 2543 Total Residential Property Listings come through the Hamilton Real Estate Board, which is down 3.3% month over month, however, it is up 27.1% compared to June 2021 as reported by The REALTORS ® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB). Hamilton had 1509 of those (up from 1198 in June 2021) and Burlington’s share was 519, up from 425 in June 2022. The bottom line is that we are seeing high inventory and low sales (fewer buyers looking). This can be a great opportunity for Buyers that have been looking for a while and were continually being beaten out on multiple offers.

Residential Sales located throughout the RAHB market area (including Burlington and all the outlying areas covered by The REALTORS ® Association of Hamilton-Burlington) of 995 Properties are down 37.8% from June 2021, and also down 19.2% over last month, May 2021. The overall average price for residential properties decreased by 5% from last month to $946,026, and up by 9% from June 2021. Hamilton’s Residential Sales (including Flamborough, Dundas, Ancaster, Waterdown, Stoney Creek and Glanbrook) were 626, which is a 35.2% decrease from 966 in June 2021, with an average price of $863,016 up 9.6% from the same month last year. Burlington had 198 Sales which is down 39.1% from 325 last year, with an average price of $1,250,673 which is up 9.9% from June 2021. The end-of-month inventory shows 1485 Active Residential Listings giving Hamilton 2.4 months of inventory, up 1.6% from June 2021. Burlington has 467 Active Residential Listings which also gives it 2.4 months worth of inventory, which is down 1.7% from June 2021. Overall, the number of Active Listings Available at the end of the month shows 2.6 months of inventory compared to 1.7 months in May. The average days on the market have risen from a few days from last month and up from last year to 17.7 from 13.6 in Hamilton. It is also taking longer to sell a home in Burlington where the days on market went from 13.7 last year to 16.2 this year, up slightly from last month. For the third month in a row, the Hamilton-Burlington Area is experiencing a Balanced Market, where the ratio of Homes Sold to Homes Listed is between 40% and 60%, currently sitting at 42% (4.2 homes sold for every 10 listed). So far this year, this has gone from 86.8% in January to 79% in February, to 69% in March, to 57% in April and 50.3% in May. Sellers may want to get ahead of this trend and price accordingly when we are this close to experiencing a Buyers Market.

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Hamilton’s Average Year to Date Prices

Take note that “Average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold through the RAHB MLS® System. Average sale price can be useful in establishing long-term trends, but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value.” What that means is, not every house or condo has increased in price by the same percentage. It is really important to talk to an experienced local REALTOR® to see EXACTLY what is happening in your particular neighbourhood. It is also important to find out what you can do to your house to get the highest amount possible when you are ready to sell!

In this Market, it is important that you know about the houses getting listed Immediately! Click Here to get set up on the Instant Listings Notification Search, otherwise, you will only know about listings once they are reported to the public sites. If you wait till you see it on Realtor.ca or other sites, it's too late, and is probably already SOLD!

MLS® Property Listings in June 2022

Note: Numbers of sales represents sales reported on properties listed on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) of the REALTORS Association of Hamilton-Burlington. Average sale price is calculated by dividing the total dollar volume of sales (not shown) by the number of sales in that month.

10 Years Ago vs. Now in 2022

Other Areas Around Hamilton